Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario % of orig. R0 % increase from current Effective R0
0 25.0 0 1.02
1 37.5 50 1.53
2 50.0 100 2.04
3 62.5 150 2.55
4 75.0 200 3.06
5 87.5 250 3.57
6 100.0 300 4.08

Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts


Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.02
  • % of original R0: 25
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 1.53
  • % of original R0: 37.5
  • % Increase from current: 50

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.04
  • % of original R0: 50
  • % Increase from current: 100

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 2.55
  • % of original R0: 62.5
  • % Increase from current: 150

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.06
  • % of original R0: 75
  • % Increase from current: 200

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 3.57
  • % of original R0: 87.5
  • % Increase from current: 250

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • The Effective \(R0\): 4.08
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 300