Social distancing scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- The Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- The % of original \(R0\): % of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- The % increase from current: % increase from current (as of 2020-05-22) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | % of orig. R0 | % increase from current | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25.0 | 0 | 1.02 |
| 1 | 37.5 | 50 | 1.53 |
| 2 | 50.0 | 100 | 2.04 |
| 3 | 62.5 | 150 | 2.55 |
| 4 | 75.0 | 200 | 3.06 |
| 5 | 87.5 | 250 | 3.57 |
| 6 | 100.0 | 300 | 4.08 |
Increase contact rate on May 16th, 2020 by variable amounts
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.02
- % of original R0: 25
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 1.53
- % of original R0: 37.5
- % Increase from current: 50
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 2.04
- % of original R0: 50
- % Increase from current: 100
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 2.55
- % of original R0: 62.5
- % Increase from current: 150
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3.06
- % of original R0: 75
- % Increase from current: 200
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 3.57
- % of original R0: 87.5
- % Increase from current: 250
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- The Effective \(R0\): 4.08
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 300
